how abt a research on the cyclicity of mood swings?

Outlook (reference the Indian political weekly) and its mood swings are getting increasingly violent by the issue. If you were to pick up the latest issue ( dated Jan 28 2008) of the I-forget-how-many-years-old magazine and it happens to be the first issue of the magazine that you read, chances are that you will never pick another issue. Of course, the assumption in this case is that you are the kind of reader who likes reading stuff worth reading. In this issue, however, all the way from the cover, to the cover story and beyond, the magazine has failed to live up to its intellectual potential or seems more likely to be a part of a series intended as an experiment into commercial success ‘ the masala way’.

The cover throws upon you the catch of the experiment ‘he has the look, the attitude, the money. But when it comes to sex and marriage, the small town guy is still a macho man.’ I failed to comprehend to contrast between the two phenomenons. Its only when out of curiosity you pick up the story to make sense of the cover abstract that you realize that ‘the look, the attitude and the money’ has been equated to metrosexuality. And the conclusion of the entire survey is simply that the Indian small town man still wants a virgin wife! I bitched about statistical research in my previous post and this survey by a leading, usually sane and occasionally unusually insane magazine is a classical example of the misuse and futility of statistical research (conducted 999 out of 1000 times inappropriately). Read the survey methodology- 840 odd men sample the entire small town population. You’d be a fool to believe these figures are not inflated atleast by 100 percent. Read the survey and you’ll further find that you can sufficiently conclude that the survey was conducted in just two towns- ludhiana and hoshiarpur (barely 60 kms apart) - one of whom will not even qualify as a small town by many standards. And then the findings of the survey! Insanity, time-pass and printspace-pass do not quite make a very fruitful combination and their synergy can induce temporary mental disorders in many a readers- read frustration and irritation. Coupled with all this mental trauma comes visual torture, the editors having converted the magazine virtually into a porn mag this issue. Outlook’s experiments at masala success which have been developing with increasing frequency over the last 2 years may be affecting readership in more ways than the people running the magazine think.

I for one, however, would still tolerate its mood swings. Though it comes out with the worst in popular English Indian print media once in a while, the best in this space has also been outlook’s domain. Two issues back it ran a full fledged story on the bibi assassination and the future of Pakistan as it can be hypothesized thence. It is by far the most authoritative and cohesive document on this issue in Indian print media space that I have come across. In this issue too, inspite of all its prostitution, it contains a few delights. Sample the quote of the season- “I welcome the merchant of death… to corruption, official apathy, terrorism, darkness and despair” – Thuglak editor Cho Ramaswamy welcoming Gujarat CM Narendra Modi to Tamil Nadu. It’s a pity Mr. Modi cannot approach the election commission for this!

merlin didnt like statistics!

Academic research is just not my cup of tea! I have a strong dislike for statistics and any results they predict. So, having to do a heavy weight (6 credits paper compared with 3 credits for the other 5) compulsory research project in the final semester of your undergraduate studies doesn’t make life seem any easy. This comes with the additional realization of the fact of ours (St. Francis batch of 2005-08) being the first ever batch subjected to the semester system (would that qualify us as pioneers or guinea pigs?) and its resultant consequent of we (B com professionals) having been given only one semester (90 working days or 4 months of college including abundant holidays) to complete the project as compared to our seniors who had more than twice that time (annual examination system). Thank them now, be elated, be proud or blame them for setting such standards in this research exercise over the last years that the evaluators now expect nothing short of a PhD paper from undergraduate students who now have less than half the time with more than twice the pressure (academic and life- read admission into an MBA oops diploma awarding B-school, or fulltime CA articleship or CS inter or final examinations). Add to that fools like me who don’t believe in the credibility of statistical analysis of most kinds… at least the ones that I can undertake at this stage of my education in finance and statistics and thus plan to do a research project over a period of 10 days by simply anthologizing various papers done earlier and pick up a super-sophisticated topic like ‘diversification of banks into non traditional banking sectors’ worded simply to people-with-dislike-for-long-titles as ‘universal banking’. You have 40 days to do your project and it takes you 30 days to realize that things are worse than it seems, in other words, that you have created just the right environment for the world to eat you up alive.

You break your I-stayed-awake-till-dash-hours-after-midnight records every night, live with the constant fear of developing spondalysis with the ever increasing growth rate in the number of hours you spend in front of the comp each day and each night, you google, you altavista (I don’t know if the verbs have yet found their place in the dictionary) almost like never before, read up every article and paper there exists on the topic, curse JSTOR for commercializing academic information on the internet (read charging users for access to academic papers after providing an abstract which enables the reader to frame a far-from-vague-idea), write close to 40 pages of notes (yes handwritten!), compose the introduction and review of literature (9 pages- keyboard typed- without copy and paste) and then one day the bomb drops on you! You learn that the osmania university evaluators who had far too much confidence in the ability of undergraduates with one semester of statistics as a paper, now have the backing of the management of the college who insist and send a guideline requisition to the evaluators asking them to make the project methodology and analysis a prime criterion in the evaluation.!

The 40 pages of written material now find their place in the bin, ditto with the 9 pages of the word document now occupying unnecessary place on my hard disk (even in the recycle bin) and the topic is finally discarded for I did not plan to do any significant analysis on the project and was hoping only to create a well structured and cohesive theory base for the work that has already been done. An analysis, which I had not thought of, and which was now required, of any nature in this topic would have to be based primarily on secondary data, the only accessible documents being the annual reports of banks, which most claim suffer from non-reliability and inadequacy, thus nullifying the entire project. Added to this is the incapacity of the researcher (read me) with regards to the awareness and competency in use of analytical tools and techniques that a research of this nature and complexity requires. A difficult task now seems super-difficult, almost to the point of being impossible and it seems only wise to discard the foolishness and move on… to a new topic.

That’s 10 days now to come up with a new topic, do the research and drop the bomb of having changed the topic at this sensitive time on my research guide. This doesn’t make me fancy academic research any more than I did earlier. Only maybe less.

Find me the man who invented birth anniversaries!

Ten reasons why I place birthdays on the top of my list of ‘the most disconcerting days of the year’.
1. You realize you are one year older than what you were same day last year.
2. And 4 kgs heavier!
3. You pick the morning’s paper and a cruel reality confronts you in the face- that you share your birthday with a certain president of the country about whom you had bitched generously in a post not too long ago ( destiny can be extraordinarily peevish sometimes).
4. The rule of the day is to be happy. You cannot cry or sulk or whimper. Mood swings are a strict NO-NO this day.
5. You get tired of eating cakes and getting them smeared on your face. Yet the routine seeks a repeat telecast every 4 hours.
6. You are aware of people around you conspiring for the last one week planning surprises of various kinds and you study every action of every person with suspecting eyes wanting to beat them at their game but fail in spite of all your efforts.
7. It’s a pain in the **** unwrapping presents specially when your friend insists that the wrapping paper be intact and that you show some ‘respect’ to her efforts and sentiments by unwrapping it meticulously! Chick, who gets the respect here? You or the wrapping paper? - think about it!
8. You place all the phones in the house by your side at 11: 50 with anxious anticipation wondering who will wish you first on your birthday this time and suddenly it begins to ring. Congratulations! You just had your first greeting. Unfortunately it happened to come on the wrong day. If only her watch was not ten minutes fast!
9. Distant relatives call you on your birthday and wish your sister!
10. With every passing year the teaser, ‘chhori bees/ikkis/baees (whatever) saal ki ho gayi bhai! Ladka-vadka dekhna shuru karo!’ gets louder and more resonant. Your confusion whether you should blush or laugh increases in proportion to the frequency of the teaser.

I’m not complaining really, everyone likes attention... it’s just difficult to reign for a day when you are not used to being the queen!

The Bigger B

It was long due. I doubt how many people were actually sent into a state of shock at the assassination of the president of the PPP ( pakistan’s people’s party) Benazir Bhutto. Most would have seen it coming… The state of turmoil in Pakistan has just worsened after yesterday and a tragedy it is for Pakistan for Musharraf is emerging as the scapegoat in the entire drama.

Without intending any insult to the memory of the lady who lies buried at Larkhana sahib from today, my conviction stands stronger today than yesterday that Musharraf is the best thing that ever happened to Pakistan and democracy will be the worst thing that can happen thereto, very contrary to the lady’s beliefs. Musharraf is as die hard a nationalist as they come and the only non corrupt leader to have lead the country since its notorious inception in 1947. The only blemish on that man’s record from a pakistani’s point of view is the manner in which he usurped power. Ignoring that one fact, he has been as able an administrator as that country can afford and has protected it like a father. He might not have been best friends with his counterparts in India and probably even extended gestures thereto only in perfunctory terms, but his very presence at the head office of our most precariously poised neighbour was a boon in disguise for India, came though it did with its price.

And all the propaganda lately surrounding the prospective elections, whenever they may now take place, is leading to an ill advised advocacy of the failed western ideals of democracy in a place where they are extraordinarily misfit.

Pakistan shares its borders with Afghanistan and the scale at which arms are treated in that goner of a country coupled with ‘people’s rule’ in the former would mean a terrorist attack every second day in Pakistan and every 3rd day in India. And things are not going to stabilize for a long time now. Meanwhile Pakistan will remain caught in the quagmire and the question resonating since yesterday “ what's next for pakistan?” is something neither a nobody nor a somebody can predict with any certainty.
In the not too far future, however, this is what I predict:
1) Musharraf will be assassinated in the next 2 years for he has become too much of a liability on America and on his own people.
2) Imran khan will emerge as the new leader of the country probably heading the country 5-6 years down the line.
3) India will, albeit too late, realise its responsibility towards its neighbour and extend its support as Big Bro and a mitigation of the tensions between the siblings will ensue.
4) The real rationale behind Al Qaeda’s claim of bibi’s assassination will emerge to replace the ‘only a fool would believe it’ reason given by the organization-‘because she was a very close friend of America’!.
5) The people of Pakistan will get some sense into their heads and then maybe they could deserve a democractic government.

Yesterday, really, was just a humbling start to a long struggle. May Allah give them the strength. Amen.

Chak de India!

Baari barsi khatan gaya si!
khatke le aandi aari!

pehle angrez!
fir afriki!
fir kangaroo!
te ab pak de vi faari!!!!

burrrrrrrrrraaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhh!!!!!

chak de fatte!!!

Cricket- the biggest file!

Oh yeah! We have it! A cricket world cup after 24 years! India has etched its name into cricketing history, having won the maiden Twenty20 world cup! And the frontrunners of this victory are nothing short of demi-gods for the populace of this country now for cricket is not a sport. In this subcontinent it is a phenomenon. And it metamorphoses into a fever, when two countries, co existent with a nearly six decade long relationship of hostility and cautious contrivance, compete against each other in this sport.

What is the sport indicative of to be recipient to such a status, distinct from the other sports? Cricket enjoys popularity pervading all sections of the society. To consider cricket as an unproductive activity may deem you to be a non-patriot. It binds the country together in a way the national holidays have ceased to. After all, independence has been achieved. But a new cricket match between the parent nation and the child nation means a fresh challenge, a challenge to insist that the parent will always be superior to the child, and the challenge for the child to exhort the development of his identity. And this insistence on a nationalistic identity finds acquaintance in all ages because cricket is youthful. The young thus connect with it, the younger see their future in it, the old see their youth in it. Because cricket is one game that every boy in the country plays, it is the national sport above the indigenous products like hockey, polo, chess or badminton.

It may have been a while since some violent upheavals occurred at the grounds and the crowds may appear well behaved, but no Indian still supports the Pakistani team. If he does, he is deemed to be an outcast, and this is when contingent betting is considered as a thing of the past, or so it seems. The 20000 plus people seated at the rims of the grassy grounds and above that, and some millions who sat glued to the television from the stroke of the clock at 5:30 to the fading of the lights at 9 are more than just spectators. They are participants of the game, to whom the victory of their team matters more than it may to the players themselves. The atmosphere in the stands is exuberant, actual festivals may not seem worthy of the festive spirit of the occasion, classroom and office gossip may cease to relate to anything other than Dhoni’s locks and yuvraj’s swearing and the like for the next week and a half, the soaps ratings’ may be recording a low, the essence of the phenomenon is that the victory is addressed in the first person plural rather than being credited to just the Indian cricket team. The victory in the game is seen more than a victory of its national heroes, it is seen as the victory of the nation.

Victory in cricket is seen as the victory of the nation and a defeat as the nation’s defeat, even when the sole sport may not even be a coherent indicator of the failure of efficacy of the nation’s sports administration, leave aside it being representative of the entire country’s machinery. But then such symbolism is only momentary. What drives this passion amongst the populace of the two countries is that unlike the existent history of the two countries charachterised by hostility and coldness, the cricket ground is one where there are results. A victorious result is reason for celebration and a defeat is enough quid pro quo for frustration manifesting itself into violence and other condemnable forms of heat, light, sound and muscular energy.

The cricket ground is a miniature representation of the aspirations of the two countries’ populace. Each wants victory. None can tolerate defeat. The leaders have just to realize such, and deliver a result where both are victorious.
Till then who is to deny that an Indo-pak match with drinks, snacks and friends is fun to watch? And it’s a double treat, when its with a win! Way to go India!

16k it is!

Its sweet sixteen baby! The sensex today crossed the 16000 mark and went stronger into the day to close at an all time high of over 16200 after an intra- day trading of almost 600 points. The question now remains, however, just how long is the saccharine gonna retain its sweetness.
The market has seen volatile trading for a long time now and the rally over the last 7 and a half weeks which led to the 1000 pt increase was charachterised by as much. A 20 % change in the index from the opening mark, which leads to a close to the day’s trading means as much as 3000+ pts change at the 15000+ level. Below the 20% level, there is no mechanism to check volatility and given the latest predominant bullish trend in the market and its increasing tendency to react sharply to even minor developments in the national and global markets, this development was long overdue. In fact, the 53 days that the last 1000 points leading to the 16 K mark took seem like an inordinately prolonged period for such a run.
However, it shall not come as a surprise to many if the sensex touches the 17000 mark within the week. Given the recent speculation about the central bank announcing a cut in the bank rate, for market experts across the country and around the globe are of the opinion that there is an increasing credit crunch in the country and that the rates have been high for a very long time, and especially in the light of the fed bank rate cut of 50 basis pts announced yesterday, even decent trading of about 200 to 300 pts up at the end of the day should do the trick. Also, expected to contribute to this bullish run are the dark horse stocks, those that did not participate in the run up to the 16k mark and are trading lower than their usual trading levels, but are fundamentally good stocks, even expected to grow better.
Despite the volatility, the asian economies are growing fundamentally stronger by the day, even as the fed bank in its statement expressed concerns about the direction in which the American economy is heading. Experts throughout the world vouch for the fact that its in asia today where all the big money is. However, what degree of correlation can be attributed to the incredible rise in the sensex and nifty vis a vis the growth factor will become clear in the following weeks.
Meanwhile the age old investment advice holds even more promise today- invest in fundamentally sound companies and do not get carried away by volatile and sharp market sentiments. For in the long run, one may expect the front runner stocks of this rally to get cheaper because a correction in the market is long overdue and such high volatility in the markets at such high rates will be hard to sustain. Quick money, however, is on the cards for the smart and agile players.
Till then, its sexy sixteen!